S2 Ep 05 Untrended Blog | The Business Confidence Deep Dive

What the hell is going on in the minds of Britain’s business leaders?

It’s the question Nicole Jones poses at the start of this episode – and one that goes to the heart of a growing confidence crisis.

Business confidence is at a record low. The IoD Directors’ Economic Confidence Index speaks to this and shows business leader’s confidence is falling significantly, that’s before you even get to the ‘AI apocalypse’ and global instability. We see the headlines everywhere, but what does it actually mean for the people leading and working inside organisations? Is it all about macroeconomic or is something more personal at play?

In this episode of Untrended, Nic is joined by CEO Jon Lonsdale, CSO Billy Hamilton-Stent and Creative Director Jamie Fewery to unpack what’s driving the slump. Later, world class performance psychologist Jamil Qureshi joins the conversation to explore the science of belief and purpose driven leadership. Together, they move beyond the numbers to examine why uncertainty feels so pervasive – and what genuine confidence looks like in practice.

It’s About People, Not Economics

Jon reframes the issue immediately: “You don’t have business confidence. You have confidence in people.” It’s a subtle shift, but a powerful one. Rather than waiting for market conditions to improve, the panel explores how confidence is built at a human level, through leadership psychology, momentum and the stories leaders tell themselves and their teams.

The economic backdrop is undeniably tough. Labour costs remain a major concern, cost expectations are high, and pessimism is widespread. But the conversation reveals something more nuanced: the confidence crisis is as psychological as it is financial.

The panel discusses the AI “innovation paradox”, where the speed of change can create paralysis rather than progress. However, instead of dwelling on the challenges, the conversation focuses on what actually helps leaders build belief in uncertain times.

The Art of Reframing

One of the most practical insights comes from Nic, who shares how she manages prepitch nerves by reframing anxiety as excitement. By deliberately changing her internal narrative – “Wow, you’re so excited” – she trained herself to genuinely enjoy pitching. It’s a small example of a bigger principle: confidence isn’t something you wait to feel, it’s something you actively create.

She connects this directly to leadership. “People don’t remember what you did. They remember how you made them feel.” In practice, that means prioritising energy, clarity and morale over perfection. Confidence builds momentum, and momentum is contagious – especially when investment intentions are falling and headcount expectations are negative.

For Jon, confidence becomes a leadership superpower when the tectonic plates of business are shifting. History shows that moments of crisis often spark the greatest innovation. “When the tide’s going out, do you just watch it? Or do you get on your surfboard and swim really hard?” These are the moments that demand belief and forward motion.

The Science of Confidence

Later in the episode, Jamil Qureshi breaks down the mechanics of belief. His central point echoes Jon’s opening reframe: there’s no such thing as a confident organisation, only confident people.

For modern leaders, he argues, “agility is the new stability.” Longterm plans are less reliable in a world of constant disruption, but a consistency of mind – rooted in values and purpose – allows leaders to adapt without losing direction.

Jamil also draws a sharp distinction between organisations focused on what they can have (targets, transactions, shortterm outcomes) and those focused on what they can be (purposeled, relationshipdriven, valuesbased). The latter, he argues, are far better placed to build lasting confidence when economic conditions are volatile.

His most powerful reframe is simple: “Obstacles don’t obstruct. They instruct.” Confidence grows not by avoiding difficulty, but by learning from it.

Escaping the Echo Chamber

The panel identifies information consumption as a major contributor to falling confidence and how the LinkedIn “doom loop” is one of the main culprits. Jamie notes how LinkedIn has shifted from professional networking to a venting space, where frustration and negativity are rewarded by the algorithm. The result is a feedback loop that amplifies anxiety and distorts perspective.

The antidote is intentional consumption. Jon describes The Economist as an “optimistic read”, not because it glosses over reality, but because it offers depth, balance and longterm context. Billy echoes this, arguing that nuance beats noise every time.

The message is clear: confidence isn’t built by waiting for better headlines. It’s built by leaders who take responsibility for their mindset, their narratives and their influence on others.